Hurricane Central
By weather.com meteorologists
6 hours ago
At a Glance
- Bermuda is next in Ernesto's path.
- Conditions will deteriorate in Bermuda as soon as Friday afternoon.
- Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Saturday.
- Ernesto then could brush or strike parts of Atlantic Canada early next week.
- The U.S. East Coast will see swells and a rip current danger even with Ernesto staying well offshore.
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Hurricane Ernesto is headed for the closest strike on Bermuda in almost four years, then could brush parts of Atlantic Canada early next week after its flooding rain and damaging winds hammered Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles.
Ernesto will remain well off the U.S. East Coast, but beachgoers will need to be aware of its swells generating a threat of dangerous rip currents.
Current status: Hurricane Ernesto is centered less than 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and is moving north.
It has held steady at Category 1 wind intensity since first becoming a hurricane early Wednesday, battling with dry air it wrapped into its center.
However, Ernesto's scope of hurricane-force winds is gradually growing, now extending up to 60 miles from its center.
Warnings and watches: A hurricane warning was issued early Thursday morning for Bermuda. This means hurricane-force winds are expected in Bermuda and is typically first issued 36 hours before tropical storm force winds arrive.
Bermuda timeline, impacts: Well ahead of Ernesto, locally heavy rain is possible in Bermuda into Friday.
Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive in Bermuda Friday afternoon. Given that, all preparations should be completed before these deteriorating conditions arrive.
Ernesto's center is forecast to pass close enough to Bermuda to bring hurricane conditions Saturday. Ernesto will also temporarily slow its forward speed as it approaches Bermuda, meaning its impacts are likely to last through Saturday night, possibly into Sunday morning before it leaves.
High winds, flooding rain, storm surge and battering waves can be expected in the archipelago. Widespread rainfall totals up to 12 inches with isolated amounts up to 15 inches are possible through early Sunday, according to the NHC.
This will be the closest hurricane strike Bermuda has experienced in almost four years, since Paulette did so in Sept. 2020.
Atlantic Canada concern: After leaving Bermuda, Ernesto will curl northeast and move much faster.
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While there's typical uncertainty in its exact track this far out, it could end up close enough to either far eastern Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland Monday and Monday night to bring at least some winds, rain and certainly waves along the coast, as it transitions from a hurricane to a "post-tropical cyclone", the type of low-pressure system you typically see attached to cold and warm fronts.
For now, those in Atlantic Canada should simply monitor the forecast over the next few days.
Ernesto's swells will be a threat to beachgoers on the East Coast: Ernesto is likely to generate large swells that would affect the East Coast through this weekend. That's likely to produce dangerous rip currents from Florida to the Northeast.
See the link below for more details on this rip current danger.
(MORE: Ernesto Likely To Cause Rip Currents Along East Coast)
Storm Recap
The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five late Sunday afternoon as a tropical wave was nearing parts of the Lesser Antilles enough to prompt tropical storm watches.
Twenty four hours later, it became Tropical Storm Ernesto, the fifth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season as it was still just under 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
By Tuesday morning, its center moved over Guadeloupe with flooding rain and locally damaging winds in Sint Maarten.
Later Tuesday into Wednesday, Ernesto battered the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with wind gusts up to 81 mph (on Isla Culebrita, Puerto Rico) and up to 11.28 inches of rain (at a reporting station near Barran, Puerto Rico).
Flooding and landslides were reported in several locations. High winds took the roof off one Puerto Rico home.
Hundreds of thousands of customers in Puerto Rico, and at least 90% of Virgin Islands customers had lost power at one time Wednesday.
Ernesto was upgraded to the third hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season late Wednesday morning. That's about 3.5 weeks ahead of the average pace, according to the National Hurricane Center.
